基于TransCAD进行交通需求预测的交通影响评价研究

介绍了TransCAD的功能及特点，以及乌鲁木齐市进行交通影响评价的情况。结合乌鲁木齐市交通影响评价项目，探讨TransCAD在交通影响评价项目的四阶段预测过程中的应用。研究了双约束重力模型在出行分布预测中的应用，同时应用OD反推法对项目背景交通量进行预测。将软件预测结果与人工预测结果及现状流量进行对比分析，发现软件预测结果基本能够反映现状交通量，其结果整体稳定性较高，预测偏差相对人工预测结果较小。该方法提高了数据预测的客观性和合理性，能够为评价提供可靠的数据支持。

Traffic Demand Predicting in Traffic Impact Analysis Based on TransCAD

The article describes the functions and features of TransCAD, and the situation of traffic im-pact analysis in Urumqi. Combining with the project of traffic impact analysis in Urumqi, it discusses the application of TransCAD in the predicting process of four-stage traffic demand. The article deals with the application of double constrained gravity model in the trip distribution predicting, while applying O-D es-timation method to predict background traffic. Also the article has conducted comparative analysis of the prediction results, manual prediction results and current traffic. The software prediction results can basi-cally reflect the current traffic with higher stability and lower prediction deviation. The objectivity and ra-tionality of the prediction results are improved by this method, which can provide reliable data to support the evaluation.