灰色系统理论在道路货运量、货运周转量预测中的应用

基于灰色系统GM(1,1)模型和残差修正GM(1,1)模型，预测道路货运量及货运周转量，可充分开发并利用了少量数据中的显信息和隐信息，避免复杂的相关关系，克服原始数据的离散性，得到高精度的预测结果.以山东省道路货运量及货运周转量为例进行了中短期预测，并用后验差方法对预测结果进行了检验。

Forecast Freight Quantity and Turnover Quantity Based on Grey Model Theory

Based on grey model GM(1,1) and remnant difference correct model GM(1,1), road freight quantity and turnover quantity are forecasted. The showed information and latent information in a small amount of data can be developed and utilized fully, complicated correlativity is abstained, the discreteness of originality data is overcome, the high-precise predicted result is received. This paper takes the short-term forecast according to the roadfreight quantity and turnover quantity in shandong province and examines the forecasted result with the methods of posterior check.