中国机动车保有量发展趋势分析

针对中国机动车保有量发展趋势的分析及预测问题，从近20年来中国与其他典型国家、地区和城市的人均GDP、机动车保有量及人口密度的数据着手，分析三者之间的关系。结果表明，在未实施机动车保有量控制政策的情况下，人均机动车保有量与人均GDP有较强的正相关关系，与人口密度有一定的负相关关系。指出各个国家在机动化发展过程中各有特点，难以找到精确的定量化预测方法。针对高保有量、中保有量、低保有量三种情况分析中国未来机动车发展趋势并提出相关建议。

Analyses of Automobile Ownership Development Trend in China

Focusing on the problems of analyzing and fore- casting the development trend of automobile ownership in China, this paper first summarizes the interrelationship among per capita GDP, automobile ownership, and popula- tion density based on the data from China and other typical foreign countries, regions and cities in the past 20 years. The results show that the automobile ownership exhibits a strong positive correlation with GDP per capita, but shows a certain negative correlation with population density with- out automobile control policies. It is found that that each country has its own characteristics in the process of motor- ization and it is difficult to develop accurate quantitative prediction methods. Finally, the paper analyzes the future development trend of automobiles in China under the sce- narios of high, medium, and low levels of automobile own- ership, and proposes relevant recommendations.