天津市综合交通模型框架及关键技术探索

基于天津市2011年综合交通调查数据，天津市在现有交通模型基础上构建了新的综合交通模型，以满足新形势下城市与交通发展对交通定量分析的需要。新的综合交通模型仍然采用基于出行的四阶段交通模型，但通过对人口、就业岗位模型，出行产生模型，出行分布模型，方式划分模型，分配模型等模块中关键技术的探索，不仅使模型能够有效反映当前天津市“双城”结构下的居民出行特征，其框架具有较高的灵活性和良好的扩展性，同时还为下一步建立基于活动的模型奠定基础。实践表明，新的综合交通模型大幅提高了现有交通模型的精度和分析能力。

Comprehensive Transportation Model Framework and Key Technologies in Tianjin

To satisfy the requirement of quantitative analysis by city and transportation development, Tianjin develops a new comprehensive transportation model based on existing models using data from the 2011 comprehensive transportation survey. The new model still adopts the traditional four-stage framework, but examines certain critical issues in the population model, trip generation model, trip distribution model, mode choice model, and traffic assignment model. The new model not only effective- ly captures the residents＇ commuting characteristics in the ＂Du- al-City＂ structure of Tianjin with high flexibility and good ex- pansibility, but also sets the foundation for developing activi- ty-based models in the future. The application results show that the new model has greatly improved the existing models＇ accu- racy and analytical capability.