基于事件惩罚的公路应急交通动态分配模型

深入剖析应急交通与常规交通在动态交通分配要求的异同，将应急时空需求分布和动态交通分配模型联系起来，提供可行的公路应急交通疏散动态分析方法.首先，根据应急期限要求建立公路交通疏散需求的时空分布预测模型，得到分时段OD矩阵.其次，借助DYMIN双层规划模型，对分时段OD矩阵进行动态交通分配得到各路段的分时初始阻抗，同时为在路径选择中体现事件扩散对路段阻抗的影响，通过定义事件惩罚函数来修正路段阻抗，引导车辆选择受事件影响程度低的最短路径进行疏散.最后，基于TransModeler 软件进行反馈式仿真，比较事件惩罚函数运用前后的公路应急交通分配结果，验证了模型的有效性.

An Emergency Penalty-based Dynamic Highway Traffic Assignment Model

After the differences in the dynamic traffic assignment methods between emergency and general traffic are thoroughly analyzed, a feasible dynamic analysis method is provided for the highway emergency traffic evacuation, by combining the temporal and spatial distribution of emergency demands with the dynamic traffic assignment procedure. First, the traffic temporal and spatial distribution forecasting model, which restricted to the evacuation deadline requirements, is established to estimate the time- varying trip matrix of demand distribution. Subsequently, through the bi- level programming model named DYMIN, dynamic traffic assignments are conducted on the time-varying trip matrix to achieve the initial time-varying impedances for each link. Further, in order to reflect the impacts on the link impedances of temporal and spatial changes in the emergency broadcasting area, the emergency penalty functions are introduced to fix the initial impedances, thereby, the trips could be guided to choose the shortest path with lower impacts of emergency in the evacuation process. Finally, multiple traffic simulation runs by TransModeler in feedback mode are executed to compare the highway emergency traffic assignment results before and after utilizing the penalty functions, the effectiveness of the established models is validated.