交通事件影响下路网逐日出行动态可靠性

为描述交通事件持续期间逐日出行过程中的路网服务性能,构建日变路网逐日出行选择模型及可靠性指标.首先,根据出行经验更新路网阻抗,以准点到达概率最大化调整逐日出行中各出发时刻的路径总流量,以路径累积前景最大为目标调整单条路径在各出发时刻的流量,从而建立考虑出发时刻的逐日出行流量推演模型;其次,以交通事件发生前路网流量稳态时的准点到达概率和路径走行时间为参照基数,定义出发时刻准点到达和路径走行时间动态可靠性,并给出计算方法.最后,用算例验证模型和算法,并比较在出行模型中考虑可靠度时对路网逐日流量分布和路网可靠性的影响.

Dynamic Reliability of Day-to-day Network under Incident

In order to describe road network performance during long-term traffic incident, a route choice model and a reliability calculation model are built for day- to- day network. First, with the principle of maximizing the probability of on-time arrival, the distribution of total flow on all paths is adjusted day by day, and with the goal of maximizing the path cumulative prospect, the distribution of flow on single path at every departure time is calculated. The travel choice model on day-to-day network is established based on considering departure time choice. Second, on-time arrival reliability of departure time and travel time reliability of chosen path is defined and calculated. Finally, an example is adopted to verify the model and algorithm. And a comparison for flow distribution and network reliability is made between considering and non-considering reliability for travel choice.