通勤出行方式-出行链模式联合选择模型

以单个通勤出行者为研究对象，构造基于广义极值理论的Cross-Nested Logit模型，分析了通勤出行方式和出行链模式联合选择行为.模型以通勤出行方式选择子集和出行链模式选择子集的组合为选择集，描述了在出行者社会经济属性、居住地和工作地区位、工作活动属性影响下的出行方式和出行链模型联合选择行为，能准确刻画两个选择维度之间的相关关系.利用居民出行调查数据完成模型标定.研究表明，通勤出行方式和出行链模式选择之间有显著的相互影响，出行者性别、家庭收入、家庭结构、家庭交通工具、工作活动作息时间、居住地和工作地区位是重要影响因素.当上述因素发生改变时，出行者会优先调整其出行链模式而非出行方式.

A Model for the Joint Choice of Commute Mode and Trip Chaining Pattern

Using single commuter as the base analysis unit, a Cross- Nested Logit model with two dimensions of commute mode and trip chaining pattern is developed in this paper to describe the joint choice based on generalized extreme value model. Duplets of commute mode and trip chaining pattern is used as elementary alternatives in the established model. The model describes how commuters jointly choose commute mode and trip chaining patter under the influences from individual ocioeconomics, residence and work location, and work schedule and the inter-alternative correlation along the two choice dimensions. The model is estimated using travel survey data. Empirical research results show that there are significant interrelation between commute mode and trip chaining. Gender, household income, household structure, household traffic tools, work schedule, residence and work locations are all important influences for the joint choice. Changes in the utility influential variables will result in changes in trip chaining pattern first instead of commute mode choice.