| 铁路货运量组合预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴晓玲,符卓,王璇,占红波. 铁路货运量组合预测方法[J]. 长沙铁道学院学报, 2009, 0(5): 89-92 |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴晓玲 符卓 王璇 占红波 |
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| 作者单位： | 中南大学交通运输工程学院,湖南长沙410075 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了对铁路货运量进行科学预测，在指数平滑、模糊移动、线性回归、灰色预测4种单一模型的基础上建立组合预测模型。结果表明：组合预测模型能有效综合各模型的有用信息，并能提高其预测精度，预测结果可靠。与单一模型相比，该法具有较好的实用价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 组合预测 指数平滑 模糊移动预测 线性回归 灰色预测 铁路货运量 |
Combine- forecast method for railway freight volumes |
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| WU Xiao-ling,FU Zhuo,WANG Xuan,ZHAN Hong-bo. Combine- forecast method for railway freight volumes[J]. Journal of Changsha Railway University, 2009, 0(5): 89-92 |
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| Authors: | WU Xiao-ling FU Zhuo WANG Xuan ZHAN Hong-bo |
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| Affiliation: | (School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410075) |
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| Abstract: | In order to forecast scientifically, a combine -forecast model was proposed based on the exponential smoothing, fuzzy sliding forecast, linear regression and the gray forecast model. The results indicate that not only the useful information from the four models is fully used, but also the prediction precision of the model is improved with considerable reliability. The combine -forecast has more practical value than the single model. |
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| Keywords: | combine - forecast exponential smoothing fuzzy sliding forecast linear regression gray forecast railway freight volumes |
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