一种新的边坡稳定随机评价指标*

基于极限平衡法和可靠性理论，考虑边坡稳定控制因素的变异性，构建安全系数概率分布模型。结合实际工程特点，将随机安全系数与临界安全系数相比较构建安全区和失效区，将安全区的安全系数均值与边坡可靠度相乘，得到基于随机二元指标的边坡有效安全系数。通过算例对比分析中值安全系数、安全系数均值、可靠安全系数以及有效安全系数在不同边坡稳定控制因素变异性下的变化特点。算例表明，该边坡稳定随机评价指标及分析方法将边坡宏观特征现象与定量分析相联系，为类似边坡工程稳定性分析及评价提供参考依据。

A new randomized evaluation index of slope stability

Based on the limit equilibrium method and the reliability theory,the probability distribution model of safety factors is constructed under consideration of the variability of controlling factors for slope stability.According to the practical engineering characteristics,comparing random safety factors with the critical safety factor to build the security region and failure region,and multiplying the average value of safety factors located in the security region by the slope reliability,we obtained the effect...