港口国监督检查选船如何避免产生“马太效应”

文中从概念、历史数据、数学模型角度分析了当前港口国监督检查中的目标因素评价体系，以及其存在阶段性正反馈所导致马太效应的原因，认为这种评价体系由于缺乏科学的动态正反馈限制以及连续性计算，而将不可避免地导致具有不良记录的船舶在一段时间内无法公正地获得与其他船舶一样的对待。笔者借此文介绍了各备忘录组织所采用的“黑名单-灰名单-白名单”船旗国分类方法，并从数学角度对其进行了分析，认为其能够较好地解决正反馈限制修正以及连续性计算问题，建议仿效其建立“黑名单-灰名单-白名单”船舶分类方法，通过登轮系数修正目标因素值作为选船的依据之一，从而给具有不良记录的船舶以彻底改善船况、重新获得信用的机会。

How to avoid Matthew Effect in selecting target vessels for Port State Control

The author of this article puts forward the opinion that current Tokyo-MOU's ship targeting system for Port State Control has Matthew Effect in certain period of time and fails to keep continuous calculation principles,by making analysis in view of its concepts,historic data and mathematic model.Then the author introduces and explains the mathematic background of 'Black,Gray and White' Flag State grading system which has been widely used in some regional organizations,and suggests using the same mathematic principle to solve the periodical Matthew Effect and discontinuity problem,by introducing Excess Factor(EF) as revision of the targeting system.