基于ELM的城市轨道交通系统建设成本估算研究

对城市轨道交通系统建设成本的估算能够在设计时实现城市轨道交通系统建设成本的控制与优化。针对传统成本估算模型计算量大、计算方法繁琐等缺点，基于多条在运营城市轨道交通线路的建设阶段成本数据，采用数据扩展的方法建立成本数据集。在选取少量关键成本指标的情况下，建立极限学习机（ELM，Extreme Learning Machine）模型，对城市轨道交通系统建设成本进行估算。测试结果表明，基于ELM的城市轨道交通系统建设成本估算模型的平均绝对百分比误差（MAPE，Mean Absolute Percentage Error）小于6%，在误差允许的范围内与实际数据吻合。该估算方法科学有效，能够满足城市轨道交通系统建设成本估算的工程需要。

Construction cost estimation for urban rail transit system based on ELM

The estimation of the construction cost of urban rail transit system can control and optimize the construction cost of urban rail transit system during the design.In view of the disadvantages of traditional cost estimation model, such as large amount of calculation, miscellaneous and tedious calculation methods, etc., based on the cost data in the construction stage for multiple operating urban rail transit lines, this paper used the method of data expansion to establish the cost data set, in the case of selecting a small number of key cost indicators, established the ELM (Extreme Learning Machine) model, estimates the construction cost of urban rail transit system.The estimation results show that the MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error)of the construction cost estimation model of urban rail transit system based on ELM is less than 6%.The estimated results are in good agreement with the actual data.The method adopted in this paper is scientific and effective. It can meet the engineering needs of estimating the construction cost of urban rail transit system.