基于组合赋权-云模型的水上机场场址评价方法

当水上机场与航道共处于同一片水域时，难免会形成水上飞机与船舶的会遇局面，对水上飞机的起降、滑行安全以及附近水域的船舶航行安全造成影响。为保障水上飞机和船舶的安全，评价水上机场场址的合理性与安全性尤为重要。提出了组合赋权和云模型相结合的水上机场场址评价方法，选取了气象环境、水文环境、通航环境和起降水域空域环境4个一级评价指标和11个二级评价指标，构建了水上机场场址评价指标体系。利用改进层次分析法与熵权法分别求得评价指标的主客观权重，以偏差极小化为目标，引入对策模型计算主客观权重最优的线性组合系数，获得组合权重，结合云模型构建了水上机场场址综合评价模型。以镇江大路水上机场为例进行实例验证，结果表明：镇江大路水上机场场址的评价结果为较好。该机场自建成运营以来未发生安全事故，评价结果与该机场的实际运营情况相符。同时在计算过程中云模型兼顾了数据的随机性和模糊性，可以较好地解决模糊综合评价法在隶属度函数选择时的不确定性问题，进一步增加了评价结果的可靠性。与经典的模糊综合评价法进行对比验证，二者的评价结果一致，验证了该模型的有效性和实用性，该模型可用于拟建水上机场的选址，也可对已建机场的营运安全进行评估分析。

A Site Evaluation of Water Aerodrome Based on Combined Weighting and a Cloud Model

When a water aerodrome and a navigation channel coexist on a same water surface, seaplanes and ships may encounter each other, which may influence the takeoff, landing, and taxiing of seaplanes, and the navigation safety of vessels in nearby waters. To ensure the safety of seaplanes and vessels, it is extremely important to evaluate the rationality and the safety of water aerodrome site. A method for site evaluation of water aerodrome based on a combined weighting method and a cloud model is proposed. An evaluation system is developed in order to appropriately evaluate the appropriateness of the site of water aerodrome, which include four first-level and 11 second-level indicators from the following aspects: meteorological, hydrological, navigable, and airspace environment. An improved analytic hierarchy process and an entropy weight method are used to obtain the subjective and objective weights of the evaluation indicators, respectively. Then, a gaming model is used to determine the optimal linear combination coefficients of these subjective and objective weights by minimizing the deviation, in order to find the combined weights. A synthetic evaluation model based on combined weighting and a cloud model is developed. Taking Dalu water aerodrome in the City of Zhenjiang as a case study, study results show that the evaluation result of the site of water aerodrome is good. There hasn't been no accident since the water aerodrome is under operation. The evaluation result is consistent with observed safety condition of the airport. The cloud model used can well address the uncertainty in the selection of the membership function by balancing the randomness and fuzziness of data in the evaluation process of any evaluation method using fuzzy mathematics, which further increases the reliability of the evaluation results from the proposed method. Study results show that the evaluation outcomes from the proposed method are similar to those from the classical fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, which verifies the validity as well as the practicability of the model. The proposed model can be applied for the site selection of the water aerodromes to be built, and also for the evaluation of the safety of existing water aerodromes.