腹地-口岸可达性格局演化及其空间溢出效应分析

为探索一带一路影响下腹地-口岸可达性演化特征及其空间溢出效应，构建腹地-口岸可达性测算模型，运用泰尔指数和空间马尔科夫链分析其空间差异特征及溢出效应。结果表明：腹地-口岸可达性高值区沿主要运输通道延伸并呈以经济实力较强的城市和城市群为中心的群状集聚现象。腹地-口岸可达性逐年优化，高值区向一带一路沿线扩散趋势明显；腹地-口岸可达性空间差异呈现以2013年为界先减少后增加的V型变化特征，东部和西部可达性空间非均衡程度大于中部和东北部；高可达性城市具有显著的正向空间溢出效应，低可达性城市与高可达性城市相邻时其类型向上转移的概率大于与中、低可达性城市相邻概率，且一带一路之后，类型向上转 移概率高于一带一路之前；腹地-口岸可达性形成以最短旅行时间为主导、路网密度为支撑的时空演化格局。

Evolution of Hinterland-port Accessibility Pattern and Its Spatial Spillover Effect

In order to explore the evolution characteristics and spillover effects of the hinterland-port accessibility, the hinterland-port accessibility measurement model is constructed. The spatial difference and spillover effect are analyzed by using Theil index and spatial Markov chain. The result shows that the high-value zones of hinterland-port accessibility extends along the main transportation channels and presents a cluster agglomeration phenomenon, and the high-value zones spread along one belt and one road. The spatial difference of hinterland-port accessibility shows a Vshaped characteristic. The spatial imbalance in the Eastern and Western regions is greater than that in the Central and Northeast. High accessibility cities have significant positive spatial spillover effects. When adjacent to high accessibility cities, the upward transfer probability of low accessibility cities is greater than that of adjacent to medium and low accessibility cities. Hinterland-port accessibility formed a spatial-temporal pattern dominated by the shortest travel time and supported by road network density.