层次分析法在城际铁路项目风险识别中的应用 |
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引用本文: | 毛明发. 层次分析法在城际铁路项目风险识别中的应用[J]. 铁路工程造价管理, 2013, 28(3): 54-57 |
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作者姓名: | 毛明发 |
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作者单位: | 湖南城际铁路有限公司,湖南长沙,410014 |
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摘 要: | 城际铁路建设项目的风险识别是风险管理的关键.此文采用层次分析法对长株潭城际铁路建设项目的风险进行识别,并对其风险特性进行分析.通过分析建立项目前期风险水平层次结构模型和层次矩阵,以此计算出风险因素的综合权重.结果表明,长株潭城际铁路建设项目的经济风险和技术风险是主要风险,组织管理风险、施工管理风险及政策风险是次要风险;异常气候和不可抗力风险产生的概率较小.
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关 键 词: | 城际铁路 层次分析法 风险识别 控制 |
Application of Analytic Hierarchy Process in the Inter- city Railway Project Risk Identification |
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Abstract: | Risk identification of the inter - city railway construction project is the key of risk management. This article uses the analytic hierarchy process to do risk identification of the changzhutan inter - city railway construction project and analyze its risk characteristics. Through analysis and establishment of pre - project risk level hierarchy and hierarchical matrix structure model, the comprehensive weight of risk factors are calculated. The results show that economic risk and technical risk of the changzhutan inter - city railway construction project are the main risks; organization management risk, construction management risk and policy risk are secondary risks; the probability of abnormal climate and force majeure risk is small. |
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Keywords: | Inter-city railway Analytic hierarchy process Risk identification Control |
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