System for assessing Aviation’s Global Emissions (SAGE), Part 2: Uncertainty assessment |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Industrial and Information Engineering, Yonsei University, 134 Shinchon-dong, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul 120-749, Republic of Korea;2. Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA;3. Research and Consulting, Wyle Laboratories, Inc., 522 Papillion Trace, Woodstock, GA 30188, USA;4. Environmental Measurement and Modeling Division, Volpe National Transportation Systems Center/USDOT, 55 Broadway, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA;5. Office of Environment and Energy (AEE-300), Federal Aviation Administration, 800 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC 20591, USA;1. Center of Excellence for Aerospace Particulate Emissions Reduction Research, Missouri University of Science and Technology, Rolla, MO 65409, USA;2. Centre for Air Transport and the Environment, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, M1 5GD, UK;1. University of Washington, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, Box 357234, Seattle, WA, 98198, United States;2. University of Washington, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Box 352700, Seattle, WA, 98198, United States;3. University of Southern California, Keck School of Medicine, SSB 225F, MC 9237, 2001 N Soto Street, Los Angeles, CA, 90032, United States;1. National Center of Excellence for Aviation Operations Research (NEXTOR II), University of California, Berkeley, United States;2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Florida, United States;3. College of Air Traffic Management, Civil Aviation University of China, China;4. Institution of Transportation Studies, University of California, Berkeley, United States;1. School of Power and Energy, Northwestern Polytechnical University, West Youyi Road 127, Beilin District, Xi''an, Shaanxi 710072, PR China;2. Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Münchener Straße 20, 82234 Weßling, Germany;3. Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Kluyverweg 1, 2629 HS Delft, the Netherlands;1. Département de Géographie, Faculté des Sciences Humaines, Université Saint-Joseph, Liban;2. Institut de Chimie et Procédé pour l''Energie, l''Environnement et la Santé (ICPEES, UMR 7515 CNRS/Unistra), Equipe de Physico-chimie de l''atmosphère, 67087, Strasbourg, France;3. Unité de Recherche Environnement, Génomique et Protéomique (UR-EGP), Faculté des Sciences, Université Saint-Joseph, Liban |
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| Abstract: | This paper focuses on assessing and applying the Federal Aviation Administration’s System for assessing Aviation’s Global Emissions (SAGE), Version 1.5, to evaluate global aircraft fuel consumption and emissions. The model is capable of computing fuel burn and emissions on a flight-by-flight, fleet and global basis. Here, a parametric study was conducted to rank-order the effects that the modeling uncertainties had on estimates of fuel burn and emissions. Statistical methods were applied to analyze both the random and systematic errors of the model. Also, applying the model to a sample policy analysis case allowed an examination of more stringent engine certification standards for mitigating aviation emissions. Uncertainties of the model were carefully accounted for in the fuel burn and emissions scenarios of the policy options. Results show that for some applications, SAGE may be used to resolve small differences in fleet emissions performance. Although the absolute uncertainty in flight-by-flight NOx predictions from the model are of the order of 40%, results show that it is well within the current capabilities of the model to distinguish between the fleet average NOx emissions associated with the typical NOx stringency options considered in policy analyses. |
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