三峡枢纽碍航经济损失评估方法研究

充分利用机会成本原理,以货物时间价值损失、货物经时损失以及船舶额外营运成本为评价指标,构建船货匹配的经济损失评估模型,为高效航道运输系统建设和区域社会发展评估提供参考。其中,货物时间价值损失测算模型运用科布道格拉斯生产函数思想,考虑长江水文特征、船舶待闸时长及船闸通行能力等因素,构建包含待闸时间敏感系数和船闸饱和度的货物时间价值损失测算公式;货物经时损失测算模型考虑货物品质和货物占用资金的使用效率,利用微分方程,构建分段损失率的货物经时损失测算公式。估算结果显示,当前三峡枢纽碍航造成的经济损失达76亿元,其中集装箱及船舶受损最严重。因此,三峡枢纽管理部门可结合经济损失优化船舶调度计划。

Economic loss assessment method for navigation obstacles of Three Gorges project

Making full use of the opportunity cost principle and taking the loss of time value of goods,the loss of goods in transit time and the additional operating cost of ships as the evaluation indexes,the economic loss evaluation model of ship-cargo matching is constructed,which can provide reference for the construction of efficient waterway transportation system and the evaluation of regional social development.Among them,Cobb Douglas production function is used to calculate the time value loss of cargo.Considering the hydrological characteristics of the Yangtze River,the length of ship waiting for lock and the capacity of lock,a formula for calculating the time value loss of cargo including the time sensitive coefficient of waiting lock and the saturation of lock is constructed.And considering the quality of goods and the utilization efficiency of funds occupied by goods,the time-consuming loss calculation model of goods with sectional loss rate is established by using differential equation.The estimated result shows that the economic losses caused by navigation obstruction of the Three Gorges Project are 7.6 billion yuan,of which container and ship are the most seriously damaged.Therefore,the management department of the Three Gorges Project can optimize the ship dispatching plan in the light of economic losses.