Climate–ocean variability and Pacific hake: A geostatistical modeling approach

Climate forcing of the California Current has been known to impact the distribution and abundance of a number of local fish populations, but the mechanisms involved remain poorly understood. Climate metrics such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are usually used to represent climate processes and direct links are made between climate forcing and production variability. This involves aggregation of impacts across large spatial scales and range of species. However, fluctuations in productivity are often the result of changes in physical habitat. In order to fully understand the relationship between climate and productivity, habitat changes should be addressed. In this study we use a geostatistical approach to quantify adult Pacific hake habitat during different climate regimes. Several authors have suggested that the distribution and intensity of the sub-surface poleward flow (the undercurrent) plays a key role in defining adult hake habitat along the west coast of North America. Here we build a model designed to predict hake habitat distribution in space based on sub-surface poleward flow distribution and bottom depth. Our results show that hake habitat expands in 1998 El Niño year compared to 1995. Given the important predatory role that hake plays in the CC, the amount and distribution of adult hake habitat has large implications for the Pacific Northwest food web and could thus serve as an ecosystem indicator representing important physical–biological interactions. Spatially based ecosystem indicators such as the one we develop here address two important yet neglected areas in the ‘Ecosystem Indicators debate’: the importance of developing metrics explicitly representing spatial and environmental processes shaping ecosystem structure. Without these, our power to fully describe ecosystems will be limited.