| 机场旅客吞吐量预测的组合方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨尚文,胡明华.机场旅客吞吐量预测的组合方法研究[J].武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版),2009,33(2). |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨尚文 胡明华 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京航空航天大学民航学院,南京,210016 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划) |
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| 摘 要： | 为提高机场旅客吞吐量预测的准确性,在综合计量经济法和时间序列预测方法各自优点的基础上,采用组合预测方法,使用多元线性回归模型确定组合预测方法的权重.以北京首都国际机场1994～2004年的旅客吞吐量为例,组合预测方法的平均拟合误差为3.36%.结果表明:组合方法总体上具有较高的预测精度和稳定性,既优于传统的计量经济法,也优于时间序列预测方法.
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| 关 键 词： | 机场旅客吞吐量 预测 组合方法 |
Combination Forecasting for Airport Passenger Throughput |
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| Yang Shangwen,Hu Minghua.Combination Forecasting for Airport Passenger Throughput[J].journal of wuhan university of technology(transportation science&engineering),2009,33(2). |
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| Authors: | Yang Shangwen Hu Minghua |
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| Institution: | College of Civil Aviation;Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics;Nanjing 210016 |
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| Abstract: | To improve the accuracy of airport passenger throughput forecasting,a combination method is presented.The combination method is based on the econometrics method and the time series method.The multiple linear regression model determines the weight of each method.The combination method is used to fit the annual throughputs of Beijing Capital International Airport from 1994 to 2004.The average error is 3.36%.The result shows that the combination method accurately fits the actual data,and is better than the eco... |
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| Keywords: | airport passenger throughput forecast combination method |
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