Multiattribute decision analysis of mandatory ballast water treatment measures in the US Great Lakes |
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Institution: | 1. Department of Pharmacy, Radboud Institute for Health Sciences, Radboud University Medical Center, Geert Grooteplein Zuid 10, 6525 GA (route 864), Nijmegen, The Netherlands;2. Department of Pharmacology and Toxicology, Radboud Institute of Molecular Life Sciences, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, The Netherlands;3. Department of Neurology, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Padjadjaran & Hasan Sadikin Hospital, Bandung, Indonesia;4. TB/HIV Research Centre, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Padjadjaran, Bandung, Indonesia;5. Department of Biomedical Sciences, Division of Pharmacology and Therapy, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Padjadjaran, Bandung, Indonesia;6. Department of Internal Medicine & Radboud Institute for Health Sciences, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, The Netherlands |
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Abstract: | Mandatory ballast water management, resulting in an increase of required freight rates on the St. Lawrence Seaway, could induce a modal shift away from marine transportation. Such a shift may cause such side effects as increased air pollution and lower transportation safety. A multinomial logit model is built to predict the changes in market shares of competing transportation modes. Two wheat transportation scenarios are studied. The results show that only a small shift, if at any, will accompany mandatory measures for ballast water treatment. To evaluate the trade-offs between the side effects brought by any modal shifts and the NIS invasion effects, the analytic hierarchy process is used to analyze the preferences of federal and state decision-makers. Analysis of questionnaires shows that among the three alternatives, ballast water exchange, filtration/UV, and heat, ballast water exchange proved to be the favored method. |
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