基于社会互动视角的出行方式选择行为机理分析

回顾以往的交通行为分析模型,多半隐含片面假设:个体决策是独立于他人行为的.因此,在分析社会互动作用较大的交通行为时,无法准确地反映出交通的宏观态势.有鉴于此,将"出行方式选择"视为一种集体行为,在考虑社会互动效应的前提下,分析出行方式选择行为的均衡转移状态.将停车收费水平视为政策干预变量,利用出行方式选择行为阈值模型对消除劣势均衡(私家车无节制出行)的政策干预阈值进行定量估计.研究结果表明,停车收费水平提高至每次15元以上,将使集体行为达到均衡转移阈值,导致公共交通出行的比例由现状的19.3%提升到约72.3%.

A Study on Behavior Mechanism of Travel Mode Choice Based on a Perspective of Social Interaction

Most of the previous travel behavior models implicitly stipulated a biased assumption that individual decision-making is independent from others′ behaviors.Thus, these models cannot accurately reflect macro traffic situations when analyzing traffic behaviors with obvious social interaction effects.In this study,'travel mode choice behavior'is regarded as a collective behavior, and equilibrium shift states of travel choice behaviors are analyzed with a consideration of social interaction effects.Accordingly, a threshold model of travel mode choice behavior is developed.Taking parking fee as an indicating variable of policy interventions, it quantitatively estimates the threshold of eliminating inferiority equilibrium (i.e.unrestrained travel of private cars).The results show that when parking fee increases to over RMB 15 yuan per trip, the collective behavior will reach the equilibrium shift threshold, which can promote the proportion of travels using public transport from 19.3% to 72.3%.