基于波及延误的飞机路径随机优化模型

为了对航班延误进行有效的事前控制,挖掘后继航班独立延误对飞机路径整体延误的影响,建立了更加精确的独立延误和波及延误算法流程,侧重研究与航班计划变更无关的独立延误的统计分布.在拟合出航班独立延误服从对数正态分布的基础上,建立了以波及延误最小为目标函数的飞机路径随机优化模型.求解过程中通过已知分布将随机模型转化为确定性模型,降低了模型的求解难度.最后将该模型应用于国内某一航空公司运行数据,优化后的波及延误降低了28%,成本降低17.37%.结果表明,基于统计分析基础上的飞机路径优化模型可以提高航班计划的先行鲁棒性.

A Stochastic Optimization Model for Aircraft Routing Based on Propagated Delay

In order to provide an effective method to control flight delay and study the influences of independent delay, an algorithm of independent delay and propagation delay is proposed.Based on the distribution of independent delays, a stochastic optimization model of aircraft routing is developed.During computation, the stochastic model is transformed into a deterministic model to reduce the difficulty in solving process.The model is verified by operation data from a large domestic airline company.The results indicate that this algorithm can reduce propagated delay by 28%, while the cost is reduced by 17.37%.It is shown that the stochastic optimization model based on delay analysis can improve the robustness of flight schedule.