MOVES模型微观层次参数的深圳本土化研究

MOVES模型是基于美国实际情况建立的机动车排放因子模型,在使用该模型模拟我国城市的机动车排放情况时,需要将模型相关参数进行修正.为使MOVES 模型能够准确模拟深圳机动车排放特征,基于深圳市的实际情况对地理信息、车辆类型、燃油、模拟年等MOVES模型微观层次默认参数进行本土化.在明确这些参数在MOVES模型中如何界定的前提下,根据深圳实际机动车相关情况对参数赋值.并且,对比分析了本土化前后MOVES模型估算结果与车载实测排放因子的相对误差.结果表明,NOx模拟效果显著改善,其中在快速路上的相对误差由365%减少至14%;CO2在本土化前后相对误差都较小,并且本土化之后的相对误差控制在20%以内;CO在本土化前后相对误差减少30~50%;但是对于HC而言,本土化前后模拟效果改善不明显,有较大提升空间.

A Study on Localization of Project-level Parameters of MOVES Model in Shenzhen

MOVES model is a model of vehicle emission factors established based on actual conditions of US.To simulate urban vehicle emissions in China, the parameters of MOVES model should to be corrected.In order to enable the MOVES model to correctly simulate characteristics of vehicle emission in Shenzhen, a study on localization of MOVES model is developed based on actual situations in Shenzhen.Project-level parameters including geographic information, vehicle type, fuel, and simulation year are localized.Under the premise that how to define related parameters in MOVES model are clear, the parameters are assigned values according to actual conditions of vehicles in Shenzhen.In addition, comparison and analysis of the relative errors are conducted between emission factors simulated by MOVES model before and after localization, and the ones obtained from on-board emission measurement.The results show that the simulation results of NOx from localized model are improved significantly;in which, the relative errors reduce from 365% to 14% in expressway.The relative errors of CO2 simulated by before and after localized MOVES models are both small, which is within 20% after localization.The relative errors of CO are reduced by 30~50% after localization.However for HC, the simulation results are negligible in all situations, there is a room for improvement.