Delphi forecast of the dry bulk shipping industry in the year 2000

Technological forecasting in general, and the Delphi method in particular, are new decision making tools which so far have not gained wide acceptance in shipping circles.

An attempt was made to use the Delphi method to obtain the views of industry leaders on a host of issues governing dry bulk shipping. A three-round Delphi exercise became the basis for a scenario of the industry in the year 2000.

In addition to dating future events, the exercise tested the respondents' attitudes towards investment and innovation in the field of 'bulking' new edible commodities. The scenario and other data were used as input to the process of selecting an optimal vessel for the carriage of the relevant commodities.