基于OD反推模型预测客运通道客流量

OD矩阵是进行客流预测的重要基础数据,在实际操作过程中,获取吸引区之间的OD矩阵却是非常困难的,一般采用OD调查的方式,但缺陷是调查过程较为费时、费力。本文提出一种免OD调查,利用客流区段观测值直接反推OD矩阵的方法。首先讨论了传统"四阶段"模式与OD反推预测模式的联系和区别,然后阐述以重力模型为结构的基于区段客流量反推OD矩阵模型,并利用最大似然法对模型参数进行迭代求解,最后结合一个具体实例,运用该方法对武广客运通道的客流量进行了预测分析,采用试算法模拟重力模型的参数,误差控制良好,结果验证了方法的有效性。

Passenger Flow Forecasting Based on OD-matrix Estimation Model

Origin destination(OD) matrices are the basic data in passenger flow forecast.It is very difficult to obtain OD matrices in practical engineering.People usually adopt OD survey,but this leads to a too time-consuming and troublesome process.This paper presents a method using section observation to back-step OD matrices directly without OD survey.The relationship and difference between the traditional four-stage method and OD matrix estimation are discussed.The OD matrices estimation model structured by the gravity model on the basis of link passenger volumes is elaborated.The model parameters are solved by iteration and with the maxmum likelihood method.Finally,the OD matrix estimation method is applied to the passenger flow forecast of the Wu-Guang transport corridor,adopting trial calculation to simulate the gravity model parameters.The result shows that error control is efficient and the proposed method is effective.