人的失误模型在船舶溢油事故应急中的应用分析

船舶交通事故问题的预测一直是业内研究人员十分重视的研究课题。分别采用回归预测法、时间序列预测法、灰色理论预测法和贝叶斯统计预测法等不同方法,结合国内某港引航站近十多年来船舶引航总量和事故的实际情况,进行了比较分析和对未来情况予以预测。着重就贝叶斯方法在港口船舶引航风险预测中的运用进行了探讨。结论证明贝叶斯估计方法得到的结果具有良好的预测效果。

Applications of Human Error Analysis Model in Ship Oil-spill Accident Emergency Response

Emergency response for ship oil-spill accident should be regarded as a dynamic complex system consisting of human,machine and organization.Recently the reliability evaluation and optimization of machine and organization in emergency response attached much attention,but the human reliability was ignored in the research.This ignorance will negatively affect the reliability of the whole emergency response system.Ship oil-spill accident not only leads to heave losses of money and human lives,but also produces serious environmental pollutions.Consequently more and more international maritime institutions have attached highly importance to it.In an attempt to improve the reliability of emergency response for ship oilspill accident,a human error analysis model was developed considering features of ship oil-spill accident.The model was developed on a theoretical basis with reference to cognitive psychology and HRA.It analyzed three types of human errors including cognitive error,decisive error and act error and four types factors causing human error including external environment,organization,operator own factor and human-machine interface.Finally an example of ineffective oil-ship accident emergency response has been analyzed with CREAM(Cognitive reliability and error analysis method),a classical second generation HRA methods,in order to test the feasibility and efficiency of HRA model.