黄骅港外航道骤淤量重现值的区间估计*

黄骅港外航道经常遭受大风骤淤的影响，对骤淤量重现值的研究有助于泥沙淤积整治标准的确定。重现值的点估计往往因方法的不同而产生较大差异。区间估计方法可以给出一定置信水平下设计重现值的参考区间，从而为设计和施工人员提供相应的指导。基于黄骅港年最大骤淤量的预测值序列，分别采用对数正态分布和最大熵分布函数对其进行拟合，并利用极大似然法对骤淤量重现值进行区间估计。骤淤量重现值的置信区间长度随重现期的增加而增大，最大熵分布计算结果精度较高，可为泥沙淤积的整治提供参考。

Interval estimation of return values of sudden siltation volume in outer channel of Huanghua port

The outer channel of Huanghua port often confronts with sudden siltation induced by strong winds,and the study on the return values of sudden siltation volumes can be helpful to the treatment of sediment accumulation.The point estimations of return values given by diverse methods may produce large differences.The interval estimation can present some reference intervals of design return values under certain confidence levels,so it will provide corresponding instruction for the designers and constructors.Fitting the predicted sequences of the annual maximum sudden siltation of Huanghua port with the lognormal and maximum entropy distributions separately,we estimate the confidence intervals of the return values of sudden siltation volumes by the maximum likelihood method.With the increase of return periods,the scale of the confidence intervals becomes large.The results given by the maximum entropy distribution have higher precision,so they can be applied as reference for the treatment of sediment accumulation.