| 基于马尔可夫链模型的交通拥挤状态预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 郑建湖,林小惠,郑礼席,张书虎.基于马尔可夫链模型的交通拥挤状态预测[J].交通标准化,2012(22):76-78. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郑建湖 林小惠 郑礼席 张书虎 |
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| 作者单位： | 闽江学院交通学院,福建福州,350108 |
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| 基金项目： | 福建省教育厅科技项目（JB10126） |
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| 摘 要： | 交通拥挤严重影响了道路交通的安全性和运行效率,如何对交通拥挤状态进行判别,并预测下一时刻交通状态的变化趋势,是提高交通管理水平的一个关键.利用马尔可夫链建立了交通状态预测模型,实例表明该模型对短期交通状态预测具有良好的适用性.
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| 关 键 词： | 交通状态 马尔可夫链 交通拥挤 预测 |
Traffic Congestion State Prediction Based on Markov Chain Model |
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| ZHENG Jian-hu,LIN Xiao-hui,ZHENG Li-xi and ZHANG Shu-hu.Traffic Congestion State Prediction Based on Markov Chain Model[J].Communications Standardization,2012(22):76-78. |
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| Authors: | ZHENG Jian-hu LIN Xiao-hui ZHENG Li-xi and ZHANG Shu-hu |
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| Institution: | (Transportation Engineering Institute of Minjiang University,Fuzhou 350108,China) |
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| Abstract: | Traffic congestion seriously affects the safety and efficiency of road transportation system.How to distinguish the current state and predict next time condition is a key factor in improving the level of transportation management.Based on Markov chain model,a new prediction model of traffic congestion state is proposed.In the end,a case is carried out,and the results indicate that the proposed model is effective and applicable for short time prediction. |
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| Keywords: | traffic state Markov chain traffic congestion prediction |
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