基于事故树的铁路行车系统可靠度模糊评定方法研究

针对铁路行车系统,先采用事故树分析法对系统进行定性和定量分析,提出了两类情况下对影响系统可靠性的主次因素划分及其模糊评判权量的计算方法;再利用多层模糊综合评判方法对系统建立可靠度动态评定模型,针对各因素属性特点,提出了扩展评判集的概念和求解扩展评判矩阵的方法;通过提出扩展评判矩阵的收缩方法,得到收缩向量,给出了系统可靠度算式;对铁路行车追尾事故防护系统进行实例分析,分析表明该方法对系统的可靠度能够做出正确的判断.为铁路车务段行车安全提供了新思路,对加强车务段行车安全管理作业,保证铁路运输安全畅通具有重要意义.

Reliability Fuzzy Evaluation of Railway Operation System Based on FTA

Aimed at the railway operation section system, which is firstly analyzed by qualitative and quanti- tative analysis based on fault tree analysis, the method for compartmentalizing the primary and secondary ingredient is discussed. Considering the various attributes of all the aggregates and realizing the multi-level fussy comprehensive evaluation, the extending and constringency arithmetic are proposed. Then the expres- sions of reliability assessment are proposed. The analysis of railway vehicle rear-end accident protection system indicates the reliable degree of this system is judged effectively by the method, which references to fault diagnosis technology of railway operation section and provides a new idea to strengthen railway opera- tion section safety management work.