| 小样本情况下的船舶溢油事故风险评价研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张欣.小样本情况下的船舶溢油事故风险评价研究[J].船舶工程,2009,31(2). |
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| 作者姓名： | 张欣 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海海事大学,交通运输学院,上海,200135 |
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| 基金项目： | 上海市基础研究重点项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 船舶溢油风险评价是一项复杂的多因素问题,是船舶溢油应急管理的关键环节.作为智能搜索算法的代表理论,BP神经网络被认为是进行不确定风险评价的较好方法之一,然而船舶溢油事故属于小样本事件,统计数据往往难以满足BP神经网络要求的样本容量.针对这一困境,首先提出一种利用B样条最小二乘理论的数据拟合法,显著增加样本数.其次,根据船舶溢油特点建立了基于BP神经网络的船舶溢油风险评价模型.最后以上海港近年发生的10起溢油事故为实例,检验了模型的可行性.
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| 关 键 词： | 船舶溢油 风险评估 小样本 BP神经网络 B样条最小二乘拟合 |
Study on ship oil-spill risk assessment based on small samples |
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| ZHANG Xin.Study on ship oil-spill risk assessment based on small samples[J].Ship Engineering,2009,31(2). |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Xin |
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| Institution: | ZHANG Xin (College of Transport & Communication,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 200135,China) |
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| Abstract: | Risk assessment of ship oil-spill is a complex multi-factor issue,which plays a key role of ship oil-spill emergency response. As the classical theory of intelligent search algorithm,BP neural network has been regarded as one of the preferred methods to solve risk assessment problem with uncertainty. However ship oil-spill accidents belong to small-sample events and data collection hardly satisfies sample requirements of BP neural networks. In order to conquer this problem,the paper firstly presents B splin... |
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| Keywords: | ship oil-spill risk assessment small sample BP neural network B spline least square |
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