郊域轨道交通对土地利用演变的影响分析

选择贝叶斯网络(Bayesian Network, BN)对郊域轨道交通引起的土地利用演变规律(LandUse Change，LUC)进行研究。将影响范围外设为参照区分析LUC是否因郊域线出现差异，并与市郊线进行对比。东京都的案例结果表明，郊域线对LUC产生了影响，其中，影响较大的是森林、建筑与运动竞技用地(运营期)及森林、运动竞技与水域(开通前)地块，上述地块缓冲区与参照区的差异依次是-32.08%，12.59%，8.24%与-24.23%，4.62%，4.40%；然而市郊线未产生影响，说明不同于市区LUC的多驱动力，郊域线作为郊区LUC的强驱动力，引起的LUC变化显著，可为通过建设郊域线推动郊区土地发展提供依据。由于市区土地发展成熟，土地利用(Land Use，LU)延续性好，故市郊线当期总与前期LU有直接关系；郊域线作为郊区LUC的强驱动力，运营后引起LUC活跃程度比较大，故导致运营期与前期 LU 无直接关系，可为郊域线土地开发时期提供参考依据。BN推理显示，郊域线运营期缓冲区终态为建筑地块受建筑用地聚集程度影响低于参照区，说明郊域线运营期终态为建筑地块的演变较独立，同样是由郊域线引起LUC活跃程度比较大引起的；为支持郊域线运营期地块终态为建筑用地，区域需87.2%的概率为缓冲区，初始邻域用地需98.5%为非森林地块，以上可为郊域线土地开发中建筑用地布局与选址提供参考依据。以多摩线2006年LU作为初始态，预测2014年LU，结果精度达89.9%，表明BN具有较强的推理能力。最 后，挖掘轨道交通LUC机制，即其通过提高出行可达性影响人们愿意在其周边居住与生活，因此出现缓冲区用地演变现象，并据此阐释了郊域线的LUC机制。

Impact of Suburban-to-suburban Rail Transit on Land Use Change

Bayesian network (BN) is selected to study the land use change (LUC) caused by suburban-to-suburban railtransit. The influence area was set as the reference area, and the difference between LUC and suburban lines wasanalyzed. The case study of Tokyo Metropolitan shows that the suburban-to-suburban line has a great impact on LUC,especially on the forest, construction and sports land (operation period) and forest, sports, and water (before opening).The differences between the buffer zone and the reference zone are -32.08%, 12.59%, 8.24% and -24.23%, 4.62%,4.40% respectively. However, the suburban line has no impact. The results show that, different from the multipledriving force to urban LUC, the suburban- to- suburban line as a strong driving force to suburban LUC causessignificant changes in LUC. which can provide a basis for promoting suburban land development through theconstruction of suburban line. Due to the maturity and better inheritance of urban land use (LU), the current LU ofsuburban line is related to the previous LU at a high degree; As a strong driving force of suburban LUC, LUC is moreactive during operation of suburban-to- suburban line, so the current LU is less related to the previous LU at a highdegree, which can provide a reference for the optimal time of land developing around the suburban-to-suburban line.The result of BN reasoning shows that the final state of the buffer zone during the operation period of suburban-tosuburban lines is construction land, which is less affected by the degree of construction land aggregation than thereference zone, indicating that the evolution of the buffer zone during the operation period of suburban line is relativelyindependent, which is also caused by the more activity of LUC caused by the suburban-to-suburban line; In order tosupport the construction land in the final state during the operation period of suburban-to-suburban line, 87.2% of thearea should be buffer zones, and 98.5% of the initial neighborhood land should be non-forest land. The above canprovide a reference for the layout and site selection of construction land in the process of suburban-to- suburban lineland development. Taking the land use in 2006 of Duomo line as the initial state, the land use in 14 years is predicted,and the accuracy of the result is 89.9%, which indicates that BN has strong reasoning ability.