预约出行模式展望

城市交通系统中，由于供需时空不匹配，在一些瓶颈点前会产生较严重的拥堵排队现象。虽然出行者最终都能完成出行，但是在瓶颈点前的拥堵和排队给出行者带来了额外的等待时间。理想情况下，如果每个出行者都按照其实际通过的时刻到达瓶颈点，就可以减免在瓶颈点前拥堵和排队产生的等待时间，即把在途拥挤排队时间转变为在家等待时间，而这两类时间的价值在出行广义费用函数中有较大差异。在传统交通系统中，由于缺乏信息指引，出行者只能依靠在路上排队获得瓶颈点的通行权。随着即时通讯、人工智能等新兴技术发展，可通过技术手段事先为出行者排好通过瓶颈点的顺序，并将推算出的通过时刻告知出行者，出行者按照该时刻到达便可无等待通过瓶颈点。基于此，本文提出预约出行的交通组织模式，即借助于创新科技手段，在城市交通系统中利用预约将现场的拥堵排队转变为虚拟的线上排队，引导出行者按照实际能够通过的时刻到达瓶颈点。研究认为：预约出行可以在一定程度上缓解出行供需时空不匹配问题，在有限资源条件下减少在途排队，提高未来城市交通系统运营组织和管理的水平。

A Prospect of Reserved Transportation

In the urban transportation system, uneven distribution of supply and demand has caused many congestionsbefore bottlenecks. Although everyone will ultimately pass the bottleneck, the congestion and queuing still generateadditional waiting time. Ideally, if every traveler arrives at the bottleneck at the actual passing time, the waiting time inthe queue can be transformed into the waiting time at home. The value of those two types of waiting time issignificantly different in the generalized travel cost function. In a traditional transportation system, due to the lack ofproper information guidance, travelers can only rely on queuing on the road to obtain the opportunity to pass thebottleneck at a certain time point. With the development of emerging technologies such as instant messaging andartificial intelligence, the technical methods can be used to arrange orders of passing bottlenecks for travelers inadvance and inform travelers the estimated passing time. Travelers can immediately pass the bottlenecks instead of waitin the queue at the estimated time. Based on this, this article proposes a traffic organization mode of“reservedtransportation”, that is, using innovative technologies and the notion of reservation to guide travelers to arrive at thetime they can pass the bottlenecks. This mode transforms the queues at the roadway bottlenecks into virtual onlinequeues. This research believes that the reserved transportation mode can alleviate the time- space dis-match betweensupply and demand to a certain extent, reduce queuing on the road under limited resource conditions, and improve theorganization and management of future urban transportation system.