传播动力学视角下集装箱海运网络关键港口节点识别

将船期延误与重要港口节点的识别问题相结合，通过传播动力学模型，对世界集装箱海运 网络的传播特性进行分析，发现港口节点传播能力与度值满足幂为16.84的幂律分布，具有无标 度特征，且度值与传播影响力的相关性较强。以 SIS(Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible)模型为基 础，结合网络结构特性，比较不同节点传播影响力评估方法发现，节点间最短路径长度是衡量节 点传播能力的一个重要因素。基于引力模型，提出考虑度值、节点核心位置及节点间最短路径长 度的综合取值法，验证了改进引力模型在世界集装箱海运网络节点传播能力评估中的适用性，发 现综合取值法对模型精确度提高有促进作用。研究得到：世界各港口传播影响力排序，为关键港 口的识别提供了不同视角；高传播影响力港口普遍集中在亚洲区域，其次为欧洲地区；高连通性 与高传播影响力无正相关性。

Identifying Important Ports in Container Liner Shipping Network:A Perspective from Spreading Dynamic Theory

This paper integrates the ship schedule recovery problem into the identification of important ports. Based on the spreading dynamics, the spreading characteristics of the world container shipping network are discussed, and it is found that the port spreading ability and its degree satisfy the power-law distribution of 16.84, which explicates the scale-free characteristic. Through the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model, with the structural characteristics of the network, several classic evaluation methods of the node spreading influence (node centrality, k- shell decomposition, gravity, and so on) are compared, where the shortest path between the nodes shows a great impact on the model accuracy. According to the gravity model, a comprehensive index is proposed in integrating the degree value, the node position (k-shell) and the interaction between the nodes (the shortest path length). Then the modified gravity model is verified to be applicable in evaluating the important nodes of the world container shipping network, where the comprehensive index improves the model accuracy. The empirical analysis shows that: (1) a new order of the world ports, providing a different perspective for the identification of important ports; (2) ports with high spreading influence are generally located in Asia, followed by the European region; and (3) there is no positive correlation with high connectivity and high spreading influence.