碳达峰下城市交通运输减排治理策略研究

随着我国城镇化和机动化进程的不断加快，交通运输行业的污染排放问题愈发严重，已经 成为碳排放的主要来源之一。通过政策手段有效治理城市交通运输污染排放是实现城市可持续 发展和2030年碳达峰目标的关键。本文在分析城市交通系统结构和各个要素因果关系的基础 上，将城市交通能耗与排放系统划分为：人口、经济、私家车、公共交通、物流与货运、交通基础设 施、能源消耗与排放等7个子系统，利用系统动力学方法建立城市交通减排治理决策模型，以哈尔 滨市为例进行策略仿真。在对模型进行方程设置、参数估计和有效性检验之后，利用Vensim软件 仿真模拟不同交通减排治理策略实施效果，并探讨如何通过不同策略组合实现城市交通碳达峰 目标，为碳达峰下城市交通减排治理提供决策依据和策略方案。

Urban Transportation Emission Reduction Governance Strategies Under Peak Carbon Dioxide Emissions

With the continuous acceleration of the process of urbanization and motorization in China, the carbon and pollution emission problem of the transportation industry has become more and more serious, which has become one of the main sources of carbon emissions. Effective management of urban traffic emissions through policy measures is the key to achieving sustainable urban development and the peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030. Based on the analysis of the urban transportation system structure and the causal relationship of various elements, this paper divided the urban transportation energy consumption and emission system into seven subsystems: population, economy, private cars, public transportation, logistics and freight transportation, transportation infrastructure, energy consumption, and emissions, and used system dynamics method to establish an urban transportation emission reduction governance policy decision model, taking Harbin as an example to conduct policy simulation. First, we established the causal diagram and stock-flow diagram, and performed equation setting, parameter estimation, and validity test on the model, then we used Vensim software to simulate the effects of different policies, finally, we discussed how to adopt different policies to achieve the target of urban transportation peak carbon dioxide emissions, so as to provide decision-making basis and strategic plan for urban transportation emission reduction governance.