考虑出行竞争的网约车能源环境效应不确定性研究

在碳中和背景下，交通行业推进节能减排刻不容缓。随着网约车的蓬勃发展，它被认为替代了部分传统出行方式出行量，与传统出行方式形成竞争关系，网约车对绿色出行量的影响引发了人们对其能源环境效应的思考。本文基于反事实思维视角，从网约车对传统出行方式出行量影响的角度建立网约车能源环境效应评估模型；以北京市为案例城市，运用网约车进入北京之前不同指标的数据，推演近年不考虑网约车影响的传统出行方式出行量；结合推演出行量和建立的能源环境效应评估模型得到网约车带来的净碳排放。结果表明，网约车对公交车和地铁出行量产生一定的抑制作用，其能源环境效应具有不确定性特征，并且随着共乘比例的增大，网约车的负能源环境效应削弱，说明网约车仍然具有节能减排的潜力，相关部门需要合理管理网约车。研究结论揭示了网约车的能源环境效应及发展共乘模式的重要性，对以网约车为代表的共享出行可持续发展具有参考意义，为实现碳中和作贡献。

Uncertainty of Energy and Environment Effects of Ride-hailing Considering Travel Competition

Under the background of carbon neutrality, it is urgent to promote energy conservation and emissionreduction in the transportation industry. With the booming development of ride-hailing, it is expected to replace part ofthe traditional travel volumes and form a competitive relationship with traditional travel modes. Among them, theimpact of ride-hailing on public travel volume has triggered people's thinking on its energy and environment effects.Based on the perspective of counterfactual thinking, this study established an evaluation model for the energy andenvironment effects of ride- hailing from the perspective of the impact of ride- hailing on the traditional travel modesvolumes. Taking Beijing as the case city, the data of different indicators before ride-hailing entered Beijing was used todeduce the traditional travel modes volumes without considering the influence of ride-hailing in recent years. Finally,the net carbon emissions brought by ride- hailing were obtained by combining the predicted travel volumes and theestablished energy and environment effect evaluation model. The results show that ride-hailing has a certain inhibitoryeffect on the travel volumes of the bus and subway, and its energy and environment effects are characterized byuncertainty. With the increase of ride-sharing proportion, the negative energy and environment effects of ride-hailingare weakened, indicating that ride-hailing still has the potential of energy conservation and emission reduction, relevantdepartments need to conduct reasonable management of ride-hailing. The research conclusions reveal the energy andenvironment effects of ride-hailing and the importance of developing ride-sharing mode, which has referencesignificance for the sustainable development of ride-sharing represented by ride-hailing, and contributes to therealization of carbon neutrality.