城市轨道交通客流与精细尺度建成环境的空间特征分析

既有研究对城市轨道交通客流与土地利用依赖关系的分析较为充分，然而针对建成环境特征对客流影响的研究仍不够细致。本文采用开发强度、混合用地、慢行交通环境、公共交通可达性和可获得性等变量刻画城市轨道交通TOD(Transit-Oriented Development, TOD)建成环境的5D特征，基于多源地理大数据提出其计算方法，并利用多尺度地理加权回归研究TOD建成环境对早高峰出站客流影响的空间特征。针对北京的案例研究表明：TOD建成环境特征的空间分布具有显著空间异质性，多尺度地理加权回归能够刻画客流与上述特征变量依赖关系的空间异质性及其影响尺度，其估计结果更为可靠。TOD建成环境对早高峰出站客流的影响效果呈现显著的区域差异特征。两者关系的空间非平稳性表明：不同区域车站的TOD开发应采取差异化发展政策。郊区车站更适合强调规模和强度的发展策略，而中心城区车站则较难通过进一步提高规模和强度以改善客流效果，而应更强调发展的质量。

Spatial Characteristics of Urban Rail Transit Passenger Flows and Fine-scale Built Environment

In the existing researches, there are many studies focusing on the correlation between urban rail transitpassenger flow and the land uses. However, the Transit-oriented-development (TOD), as a strategy to achieve theintegration of rail and land use, still need more and deeper research to describe the impact of TOD built environment onrail transit passenger flows. Based on multi-source geographic big data, this study uses the multiscale geographicallyweighted regression (MGWR) to investigate the built environment characteristics of TOD and the spatial impact on themorning peak outbound passenger flow in a five D variables (5D) analysis, including development intensity, mixedland use, slow-moving traffic environment, accessibility of public transit, and the availability. The case study forBeijing Subway shows that the spatial distribution of built environment features has significant spatial heterogeneity,the MGWR can characterize this spatial heterogeneity of passenger flow and variable dependencies with a morereliable estimate result. The effect of the built environment of TOD on the morning peak outbound passenger flow isalso demonstrated by prominently regional differences. Due to the spatial non-stationary nature of the relationshipbetween the TOD built environment and morning peak outbound passenger flow, TOD development in differentregional stations should adopt different policies. Suburban stations are more suitable for a development strategy thatfocuses on scale and intensity, whereas central city stations should place more emphasis on the quality of developmentas it is relatively difficult to improve passenger flow through increasing the intensity in central area of a city.