基于历史数据的城市轨道交通列车运行扰动影响分析

列车运行过程受到诸多扰动因素的影响,严重时引起列车运行延误,影响乘客出行.为了判别列车运行扰动、评估影响范围和程度,提出了基于城市轨道交通历史数据的分析方法.根据突发事件类扰动及其相关的列车运行、自动售检票等多源数据,分析扰动的产生和影响规律,包括扰动分类、原因和发生规律,以及扰动持续时间、空间范围和客流相对率.典型城...

Influence of Train Operation Disturbance in Urban Rail Transit Based on Historical Data

The process of train operation is affected by many disturbance factors, which may cause train delays and affect passengers. To identify the disturbance and estimate its influence, a novel approach based on historical data of urban rail transit is proposed. According to the emergency disturbance and its related multi-source data, such as train operation records and automatic fare collection data, the generation and influence laws of the disturbance were analyzed. The main contents include the classification, causes, occurrence laws of the disturbance, duration, spatial range, and relative passenger flow rate under the disturbance. The case study of a city showed that disturbance events were more likely to occur during peak hours, and vehicle failure was the most common cause. More than half of the disturbance events could be eliminated within 30 min. The delay caused by the disturbance mainly occurred on the follow-up trains and at the stations in front of the occurrence location. The passenger flows decreased in the first half hour, then increased or even exceeded the normal standard ones, which coincided with each other by approximately two hours.