基于灰云聚类的港口水域通航环境危险度评价

针对港口水域通航环境危险度评估中现有评价等级标准过于僵化,未考虑指标元素模糊性、随机性以及权重确定过程中当前方法操作繁琐或主观性强等问题,提出基于组合赋权的改进灰云聚类综合评价模型。基于港口水域通航危险度现有评价等级表构建灰云白化权等级标准值,利用云理论确定主观权重、因子分析和主成分分析确定客观权重,结合加法集成原理构造组合权重,构建港口水域通航危险度的灰云白化权聚类评估模型。组合权重能够有效综合主客观权重信息;改进的灰云白化权模型能够解决评价指标亦此亦彼的“软”边缘性问题,实现定性与定量评估的有效转换,能够有效淡化评价的主观性模糊性等因素。实例分析表明:构建的模型不仅可有效解决现有评价等级标准的主观性和边界指标模糊性、随机性等问题,还能够更客观地评价港口水域通航环境的危险程度。

Risk Assessment with Grey Cloud Clustering Concerning Port Navigational Environment

The currently used grading system for navigational environment evaluation is inflexible to deal with the fuzziness and randomness of evaluation indexes and the weighing of influencing factors is complicated and subjective in a degree. The comprehensive risk evaluation model based on the combination weighing grey cloud clustering is proposed to solve the problems. The normal evaluation indexes are modified with grey cloud whitenized weight ones, which solves the ambiguity of the index evaluation. The combination weighing combines the objective and subjective information according to the principle of additive integration. The subjective weights are determined with cloud theory while the objective weights are determined according to the principal components by means of factor analysis. An example of the practical application is analyzed and the results show that the model can effectively solve the problems of subjectivity, randomness and ambiguity of boundary indices in existing evaluation, and gives the objective risk degree evaluation for port navigational environment.