旅游公路交通量预测模型研究

为了更加准确的预测旅游公路的交通量，基于交通生成原理的不同，将旅游公路的交通量分成旅客交通量和背景交通量两部分。首先根据景区的等级、接待能力、特点和历史等数据预测得到景区的特征年旅客接待人数，根据景点周边城市的规模和交通条件求出旅游公路的通道交通量，考虑旅客出行特性的不同，采用非集计模型进行交通方式选择预测。最后加上通过常规预测方法求出的背景交通量得到旅游公路的总交通量。本文对旅游公路建设前期工作的研究有着重要的指导意义。

Study on the Traffic Forecast Model of Tourist highway

In order to forecast the traffic of tourist road more accurately, based on different genera- tion principle of tourist road traffic, the traffic is divided into two parts of the passenger traffic and back- ground traffic. Firstly, we predict the passengers according to the level of scenic areas, the reception ca- pacity, characteristics and historical statistics. Secondly, we predict the passenger traffic of the channel direction where tourist road will build according to the scale of cities and the transportation conditions of the surrounding cities. Then, based on the passenger travel characteristics, we use disaggregate Model to predict traffic mode choice. Background traffic is obtained by conventional forecasting methods. This pa- per has a very important guiding significance for the traffic forecast of the tourist road engineering feasibil- ity study.