新形势下中欧班列的市场空间及其改善策略

基于中欧班列运输组织过程，本文提出班列运行效率与经济性评估方法。通过与海陆联运、航空运输等竞争方式比较，建立中欧班列的竞争力分析测算模型。考虑俄乌冲突引发的世界经贸格局重组，分析中欧班列径路及其市场空间变化。研究认为：地缘政治风险加剧了欧洲端市场贸易的不稳定性，使中欧班列及中欧间其他海陆通道的运到时限均有所增加。总体上中欧班列在原通道上的市场竞争力受到一定挑战，市场空间有所收窄。欧洲局势的变化需要打造和拓展新的运输径路，其中地中海径路具有一定发展潜力。在中欧班列运输新径路的打造中，应重点兼顾区域稳定性和沿线货运市场因素，以便为中欧班列运行提供更大的市场空间。新运行径路下稳定的区域环境为提升中欧班列竞争力提供了利好条件，从而推动中欧班列的可持续发展。

Market Space and Improvement Policies for China-Europe Railway Express Operations under New Situations

Based on the organization process of China-Europe Railway Express(CERE), the evaluation method on the operation efficiency and economy is proposed. A competitiveness evaluation model of CERE is established by comparing it with other modes such as water, land, and air transportation. Considering the reorganization of the world trade pattern triggered by the Russia- Ukraine conflict, the changes in the CERE train path and its market space are analyzed. The analysis results are concluded as follows. Geopolitical risks have intensified the instability in Eastern Europe, and the blockage of the original path of CERE trains has increased its arrival time limit, and thus its market competitiveness of the original paths has been challenged, which directly compresses the market space of CERE trains. The changing situation in Europe requires the creation and expansion of new paths, among which the Mediterranean path has good development potential. With the diversion to the Mediterranean route, the new operation route fully considers the regional stability and freight market along the route, which can provide more market space for the CERE. The new route and the stable region provide favorable conditions to enhance the competitiveness of CERE, thus promoting the sustainable development of CERE.