诱导信息下城市轨道交通乘客路径选择行为研究

为研究城市轨道交通诱导信息对乘客的影响,考虑信息提供时间、方式、更新频率及其与路径属性之间的交互关系,提出融合诱导信息的城市轨道交通乘客路径选择行为决策框架。考虑乘客在决策时表现出遵循混合决策规则的倾向差异和不同属性感知差异,建立改进的混合效用-后悔模型。将路径属性与诱导信息同时纳入调研情景设计,基于调研结果标定模型中关键参数,结果表明,基于混合决策规则的模型拟合效果最高(调整优度比达0.396)。进一步分析乘客对信息的偏好：相较于下载手机APP,乘客更喜欢社交媒体推送的形式接收诱导信息;引入信息推送频率时间价值,并对比得出,女性、中老年及非通勤乘客更倾向于接受更高频率的诱导信息推送服务;分析各属性弹性值,表明诱导信息提供方式和更新频率应作为管理者的辅助手段,在特定场景下(例如高峰拥堵和突发事故)诱导信息将会发挥更大的作用。研究揭示了诱导信息提供方式如何影响轨道交通乘客的路径决策机理,有助于设计更加精准和高效的诱导信息策略辅助客流组织管理。

Route Choice Behavior of Urban Rail Transit PassengersBased on Guidance Information

To explore how to provide guidance information for urban rail transit passengers, this paper considered theinteraction between path attributes with the time and ways of information provision and update rate, and it proposed aframework for passenger route choice behavior based on guidance information. An improved mixed utility-regretmodel was established, in which the differences in the wishes of passengers to follow the mixed decision rules and theperception of each attribute are taken into account. The route attributes and guidance information are both incorporatedinto the scenario design, and the key parameters in the model were estimated based on passengers' route choicebehavior survey. The results show that the mixed decision rule has resulted in a high fit degree (where the adjustedgoodness ratio reached 0.396). The analysis on passengers' preferences for information provision indicates that,compared to downloading the mobile APP, passengers prefer to receive guidance information through social media. Byintroducing the time value of the information update rate, it is shown that female, middle- aged, and non- commuterpassengers are more likely to accept higher frequency guidance information services. Based on the elastic value of eachattribute, it indicates that the way of providing information and the update rate of information should be used as anauxiliary means for managers, and the information provision can play a greater role in specific scenarios (such as peakcongestion, emergencies). These research results reveal how the way of guidance information provision affects theroute choice of passengers, which is helpful to design accurate and efficient guidance information strategies for theorganization and management of passenger flow.