模拟早晚高峰交通出行率的方法研究

为了实时模拟交通走廊在一天内的动态交通变化,提出了一种基于交通行为的动态交通分配方法。假定单个的出行者统筹考虑工作时间表、交通拥挤耗时等因素,通过选择最佳的离家时间和返家时间以最大化一天内的净效用。引入边际时间效率函数,通过出行者工作持续时间把早晚高峰出行联系在一起,并运用固定点理论求解均衡条件下的实时交通变化。将模型在一个算例上进行仿真分析,发现引入弹性工作制可以减少交通拥挤,并提高工作效率。

Modeling Departure Rates of Morning and Evening Rush Hours

To obtain the daily dynamic traffic pattern in traffic corridors, a traffic behavior based dynamic traffic assignment method is proposed in this paper. Individual travelers choose optimal departure times in morning and evening rush hours to maximize the daily net benefit, considering work schedule, traffic time and travel cost etc. By introducing marginal timing utility function, the morning and evening trips are connected through work duration. And the equilibrium traffic pattern is solved by fixed-point method. The models are implemented by numerical simulation on a simple network. It is found that traffic congestion can be alleviated, and work efficiency can be enhanced, by introducing flexible work system.