四阶段模型对精明增长模拟的探讨

同交通有关的精明增长措施集中体现在减少小汽车出行、鼓励非机动车出行、混合土地使用以及大力发展公共交通等方面。传统的四阶段模型主要用于宏观的长期交通预测，在模拟精明增长策略方面存在许多缺陷。为了解决这个问题，必须从三个层次上进行改进：短期内，维持现有的宏观模型框架不变，对其内部涉及的假设、变量和模拟过程进行改进；中期通过微观分析得到同精明增长有关的4D弹性系数对传统交通模型结果进行调整；从长远考虑，应构建对精明增长敏感的同土地利用相结合的新交通模型。交通数据来源和模型方法研究是制约模型改进进程的主要因素。传统的四阶段模型在模拟精明增长方面有许多问题，应当进行全面的改进，但是必须循序渐进，逐步完善。

Exploration of Smart Growth Modeling by the 4-Step Models

The transportation-related smart growth strategy includes such measures as reduction of vehicle travel, encouragement of non-motorized travel, mixed land use, promotion of public transportation, among others. The conventional four-step model has primarily been used in making macro-level long-range transportation forecasts, yet suffers, however, several deficiencies in simulating smart growth measures. To address this issue, the paper suggests making improvements on three levels: 1) over the short term, leav...