基于粗糙集的公路客运量预测

公路客运量预测不仅是进行客运发展规划的基础,也是制定城市综合客运枢纽规划及综合交通规划的前提。通过对公路客运量预测决策表连续属性的离散化、决策矩阵构造及最简决策规则的获取,建立了基于粗糙集的客运量预测模型。该模型获取的最简决策规则避免了因历年统计数据波动而造成的预测误差,最终的预测结果为增长区间而不是绝对数值,更好的反映了公路客运需求。最后应用该模型预测成都市未来5 a的公路客运量,得到了客运量的增长区间。

Forecast of Highway Passenger Transport Volume Based on Rough Set Theory

Prediction of highway passenger transport volume is not only the basis of developing and planning the highway passenger transport,but also the premise of planning comprehensive passenger transport center and the city's comprehensive transport.The forecast model of passenger transport volume is constructed on the base of rough set theory,through the discretization of continuous attributes in decision table of forecasting the highway passenger transport volume,constructing the decision-making matrix and obtaining the simplest decision-making rules.The simplest decision-making rules obtained by the model avoid the errors caused by fluctuations in statistical data during the years,so the final forecast results are growth intervals rather than absolute values,which better reflects the needs of highway passenger transport.Finally the model is applied to predict highway passenger transport volume in Chengdu in the next five years,and the growth interval of passenger transport volume is got.