Meeting an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from transportation by 2050: A case study in California |
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| Authors: | Christopher Yang David McCollum Ryan McCarthy Wayne Leighty |
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| Institution: | 1. State Key Laboratory of Automotive Safety and Energy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;2. Key Laboratory of Pollution Ecology and Environmental Engineering, Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 110016 Shenyang, China;3. China Automotive Energy Research Center, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;4. Energy Policy Institute at Chicago, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60616, USA;1. State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;2. Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;3. Collaborative Innovation Center for Regional Environmental Quality, Beijing 100084, China;4. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria;5. Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;6. School of International Development, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom;7. Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO), Oslo, Norway;8. State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing 100084, China;1. Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, UK;2. Department of Mechanical Engineering, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, UK;1. University of California, Davis, Institute of Transportation Studies, Davis, CA 95616, USA;2. University of California, Davis, Policy Institute for Energy, Environment, and the Economy, Davis, CA 95616, USA;1. Urban Research Division, Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements, Sejong-si, 30147, South Korea;2. Public Management and Policy Analysis Program, Graduate School of International Relations, International University of Japan, Niigata, 949-7277, Japan;1. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, 1715 Tilia Street, Davis, CA 95616, USA;2. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg 2361, Austria |
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| Abstract: | This paper investigates how California may reduce transportation greenhouse gas emissions 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 (i.e., 80in50). A Kaya framework that decomposes greenhouse gas emissions into the product of population, transport intensity, energy intensity, and carbon intensity is used to analyze emissions and mitigation options. Each transportation subsector, including light-duty, heavy-duty, aviation, rail, marine, agriculture, and off-road vehicles, is analyzed to identify specific mitigation options and understand its potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Scenario analysis shows that, while California’s 2050 target is ambitious, it can be achieved in transport if a concerted effort is made to change travel behavior and the vehicles and fuels that provide mobility. While no individual ‘‘Silver Bullet” strategy exists that can achieve the goals, a portfolio approach that combines strategies could yield success. The 80in50 scenarios show the impacts of advanced vehicle and fuels technologies as well as the role of travel demand reduction, which can significantly reduce energy and resource requirements and the level of technology development needed to meet the target. |
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