| 基于产业生命周期理论的我国铁路发展趋势分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李雪梅,阎玮. 基于产业生命周期理论的我国铁路发展趋势分析[J]. 中国铁道科学, 2011, 32(1) |
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| 作者姓名： | 李雪梅 阎玮 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京交通大学,经济管理学院,北京,100044 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划项目(2009BAG12A10-1); 铁道部科技研究开发计划项目(2010Z012) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于产业生命周期理论,提出铁路产业理想型发展趋势包括产业初创期、产业成长期、产业成熟期和衰退期4部分组成。运用主成分分析方法,分析1949—2009年的铁路统计数据,对我国铁路产业的发展阶段进行划分,验证我国铁路产业的长期发展趋势基本符合理论上的产业生命周期变化趋势。指出目前我国铁路产业已跃进到下一个产业生命周期的产业发展期;在国家产业政策的支持下,通过大规模路网建设以及科技和管理创新,推动产业升级,不断适应国家经济和社会的需求,可以实现铁路产业的持续发展。
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| 关 键 词： | 产业生命周期 中国铁路 发展趋势 运输指标 主成分分析 |
Analysis on the Development Trend of China Railway Based on Industry Life Cycle Theory |
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| LI Xuemei,YAN Wei. Analysis on the Development Trend of China Railway Based on Industry Life Cycle Theory[J]. China Railway Science, 2011, 32(1) |
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| Authors: | LI Xuemei YAN Wei |
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| Affiliation: | LI Xuemei,YAN Wei(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the industry life cycle theory,the ideal development trend of railway industry is put forward,which includes four parts: early stage,growth stage,maturity stage and decline stage.The development stages of China railway industry is divided by the method of the principal component analysis on the statistical data of railway from 1949 to 2009,and the long-term development trend of China railway is proved to be basically in accordance with the variation trend of the industry life cycle in theory.It is ... |
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| Keywords: | Industry life cycle China railway Development trend Transportation index Principal component analysis |
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