基于机器学习的网约车合乘出行碳减排状态预测

网约车合乘出行可有效提高车辆运输效率，与常规网约车出行相比具有显著的碳减排潜力。然而，现实中网约车合乘出行能否真正减少碳排放受多方面因素影响，往往存在较大差异与不确定性。为识别碳减排潜力较大的网约车合乘订单，提出一种基于机器学习的网约车合乘出行碳减排状态预测模型，并解析其碳减排机理。首先，基于成都市真实的网约车合乘订单与轨迹数据，应用COPERT(COmputer Program to calculate Emissions from Road Transport)排放模型分别计算合乘出行碳排放量及其替代的独乘出行碳排放量，进而得到合乘出行相比独乘出行的碳减排量。然后，基于历史的合乘行程碳减排及其订单特征数据，训练XGBoost(eXtreme Gradient Boosting)模型以预测未来潜在合乘出行的碳减排状态。最后，采用ALE (Accumulated Local Effects)分析方法对预测模型进行特征变量解析，以识别影响合乘出行碳减排状态的关键因素。结果显示：研究区域内平均每次网约车合乘出行可减少碳排放307.23 g，但仍有15%的网约车合乘行程未能实现减碳；XGBo...

Prediction of CO2 Emission Reduction State ofRidesplitting Based on Machine Learning

Ridesplitting can effectively improve the transportation efficiency of vehicles and has great potential foremission reduction compared with regular ridesourcing. However, in reality, whether a ridesplitting trip reduces CO2emissions, is determined by many factors with heterogeneity and uncertainty. To identify the ridesplitting trips withgreater carbon emission reduction potential, this study proposes a machine learning-based model for predicting theCO2 emission reduction state and interpreting the CO2 emission reduction mechanism of ridesplitting. First, the CO2emissions of shared rides (ridesplitting) and their substituted single rides (regular ridesourcing) are calculated based onthe COPERT (COmputer Program to calculate Emissions from Road Transport) model using the real-world order dataand trajectory data of ridesplitting in Chengdu City. Then, the actual CO2 emission reduction of each ridesplitting tripcompared with regular ridesourcing trips is quantified. Given the CO2 emission reduction and order attributes of ridesplitting trips, the XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) model is trained to predict the CO2 emission reductionstates of potential ridesplitting trips in the future. Finally, the ALE (Accumulated Local Effects) analysis method is usedto analyze the mechanism of the prediction model to identify the key factors influencing the CO2 emission reductionstate of ridesplitting trips. The results showed that the average CO2 emission of each ridesplitting trip is 307.23 g in thestudy area. However, there are still 15% of ridesplitting trips even increasing CO2 emissions. The XGBoost model caneffectively predict the CO2 emission reduction state of ridesplitting trips. In addition, the detour rate, the number ofshared rides, and the overlap rate are identified to be the three key factors that determine the CO2 emission reductionstate of ridesplitting trips. This study provides a theoretical basis for the ridesourcing platform to optimize the matchingalgorithms of shared rides. It can also realize more efficient and low-carbon ridesplitting and further improve theenvironmental benefits of ridesplitting.