油气管道腐蚀速度灰色动态多级残差模型的确立及应用

为客观评价及预测油气管道的腐蚀速度和现状,人们一般采用灰色系统的GM(1,1)理论,但该方法有其固有的缺陷,预测精度不高,初始点的选择不尽合理,文中针对初始点和预测精度问题,运用最小二乘法拟合原理及残差修正理论进行了两处改进,从而提高了预测精度。最后针对某输油管道的实际监测腐蚀速度进行了分析预测,并对方法改进前后的预测结果进行了对比,可以看出预测精度大大提高。

The Application and Determination of Multi-grade Remnant Grey Model in Oil and Gas Pipeline

We usually use the traditional GM(1,1)model to forecast the corrosion velocity in oil and gas pipelines,but the model has not a high precision.This paper gave a new multi-grade remnant GM(1,1)model to forecast the corrosion velocity,based on the newly modified GM(1,1)model and the conception of multi-grade remnant.Furthermore,we used this new model to forecast and simulate the corrosion velocity in an oil and gas pipeline.So we draw a conclusion that the multi-grade remnant GM(1,1)model could give a higher simulated and forecasted precision than the traditional one.