路基工后沉降的多目标优化组合预测

路基的工后沉降预测是路基建设中的一个重要课题，以兰武（兰州-武威）二线路基工后沉降的实测数据为依据，对比星野法、指数曲线法、双曲线法、以及由3种单项预测方法构成的优化组合预测法的拟合精度和预测精度，结果表明拟合的效果和预测的效果随着数据量的增多而更优，但单项预测法不稳定，而优性组合预测法比较稳定，无论拟合数据量多少，其拟合精度和预测精度及其稳定性都比较好，且两者能够保持较好的一致性．另一方面，优性组合预测法中的加权系数可用于评价单项预测方法的适应性．

Multi-objective Optimal Combination Forecast of Post-construction Settlement of Embankment

The post-construction settlement prediction is an important problem in the roadbed construction. Because the normal prediction methods based on observation data have different applicabilities and disadvantages, the combination forecast can synthetically utilize the information provided by different methods to improve the precision of prediction. Optimal combination forecasting method is modeled on the highest of the forecast precision and the best forecasting precision stability. Based on observed data from the second line of Lanzhou-Wuwei Railway, the fitting precision and forecasting precision that are made from Xing-ye＇ method, the exponent method, the hyperbolic method and optimal combination forecasting method are analyzed. This case not only illustrates the optimal combination forecasting method has the higher fitting precision and forecasting precision and their stability, but also demonstrates it is feasible that the adaptability of every single forecasting method is evaluated by weight coefficient.