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潜水器载人舱的不确定性测度计算方法研究
引用本文:张磊,胡震. 潜水器载人舱的不确定性测度计算方法研究[J]. 船舶力学, 2020, 0(2): 197-207
作者姓名:张磊  胡震
作者单位:中国船舶科学研究中心水下工程研究室
基金项目:全海深载人潜水器总体设计、集成与海试(2016YFC300600)
摘    要:本文研究状态函数中存在概率数和证据数的混合状态下的系统不确定性分析方法问题,用于解决在产品实现过程中部分信息的认知不足。传统概率分析方法无法建立认知不确定信息模型,无法反映产品在实现过程中不确定性影响的问题。本文将证据理论不确定度分析方法融入传统JC算法,在计算随机变量迭代时开展认知变量极值计算,进而可以处理随机和认知不确定性变量同时存在时的混合不确定性问题。本文建立了4500 m载人潜水器载人舱不确定度分析模型,基于改进JC算法计算得到载人舱失效似然性测度和失效可信性测度值,同时采用实验设计法对影响载人舱不确定性测度的因素进行分析,分析表明测度影响较大的因素是真球度和极限拉伸强度,测度对真球度和厚度两个因素的单位数量变化比较敏感。

关 键 词:潜水器载人舱  认知不确定性  不确定性分析  改进JC算法  失效似然性测度  失效可信性测度

Application of mixed uncertainty analysis method in manned cabin of submersible
ZHANG Lei,HU Zhen. Application of mixed uncertainty analysis method in manned cabin of submersible[J]. Journal of Ship Mechanics, 2020, 0(2): 197-207
Authors:ZHANG Lei  HU Zhen
Affiliation:(China Ship Scientific Research Center,Wuxi 214082,China)
Abstract:In this paper,the problem of system uncertainty analysis in the mixed state of probability function and evidence number in the state function is studied,which is used to solve the problem of partial information cognition in the product realization process.The traditional probability analysis method cannot establish the cognitive uncertainty information model,nor does it reflect the problem of the uncertainty of the product in the implementation process.The evidence theory uncertainty analysis method is integrated into the tradition⁃al JC algorithm,and the cognitive variable extreme value calculation is carried out when the random variable iteration is calculated,which can deal with the mixed uncertainty problem when the random and cognitive un⁃certainty variables exist simultaneously.The uncertainty analysis model of the manned cabin of the 4500-me⁃ter manned submersible is established.Based on the improved JC algorithm,the failure plausibility measure and the failure credibility measure of the manned space are calculated,and the experimental design method is adopted to affect the manned space.The factors of deterministic measure are analyzed.The factors that in⁃fluence the measurement are the true sphericity and the ultimate tensile strength.The measure is sensitive to the change of the unit quantity of the two factors of true sphericity and thickness.
Keywords:submersible manned cabin  cognitive uncertainty  uncertainty analysis  improved JC algorithm  failure plausibility measure  failure credibility measure
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