The geographical foundations of tanker (dirty) shipping

A simulation model of individual ship movements demonstrates that distance-weighted regional imbalances of tonnage supply and demand are powerful estimators of tanker rates that are converted to approximate time charter equivalents. Statistical fit is acceptable to good when cargo cycles (ballast-load-cargo-discharge) are the units of observation, either individually or aggregated by region. Up to 30-40% higher average time charter equivalent is possible in an outstanding year, such as in 2004, when consistent use is made of this feature.